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20 December, 2015

Spanish elections: First scenarios about possible coalitions

globinfo freexchange

The exit polls suggest that no party has won an overall majority at Spain's general election. If the exit polls are right, PP and PSOE will have come in on forecast, Podemos will have done better and Ciudadanos worse. 176 seats in the Spanish Congress are required for an overall majority.

Min./Max. Seats
PSOE + Ciudadanos + Podemos
(79–85) + (46–50) + (70-80) = (195–215)
Possible on both lower and higher figures.
(114–124) + (79–85) = (193–209)
Possible on both lower and higher figures.
PP + Ciudadanos
(114–124) + (46–50) = (160–174)
Not possible.
PSOE + Ciudadanos
(79–85) + (46–50) = (125–135)
Not possible.
PSOE + Podemos
(79–85) + (70-80) = (149–165)
Not possible.

More scenarios:

Not good news.

Prediction: Popular Right and Socialists will form a coalition to pass all the catastrophic neoliberal measures as the European Financial Dictatorship wants.

Update: 30% of votes: Podemos surpass 1,000,000 votes, currently translated to 42 seats. 

Update: With more than 60% of the votes counted, here’s how it’s looking:


Partido Popular: 124

PSOE (Socialists): 95

Podemos: 69

Ciudadanos: 33 


Update: With more than 75% of the votes counted, here’s how it’s looking:


Partido Popular: 123

PSOE (Socialists): 93

Podemos: 68

Ciudadanos: 37 


Update: With almost all votes counted: 

Popular Party (PP): 122 seats

Socialists: 91 seats 

Podemos: 69 seats

Ciudadanos: 40 seats



With 99% of the votes counted on Sunday night, the PP was on track to receive 123 seats, leaving it shy of a majority in the 350-seat legislature. Led by Mariano Rajoy, the current prime minister, it earned 29% of the vote and won only two-thirds the number of seats it took in 2011.

The Socialists, who asserted throughout the campaign that they were best placed to rival the conservatives, came in second, with 90 seats and 22% of the vote.

The leftwing anti-austerity party Podemos was next with 69 seats and 21% of the vote, while Ciudadanos was on track to win 40 seats and 14% of the vote. The results suggest that Podemos capitalised on the campaign to gain votes and that pollsters underestimated its appeal while overestimating that of Ciudadanos.

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